In testimony today before the a House Ways and Means subcommittee, EPI labor market expert Heidi Shierholz presents a detailed picture of the current and worsening state of the U.S. labor market. Her presentation offers a grim and vivid rendering of the mounting challenges families are facing as they struggle to stay afloat in a recession that is on the verge of becoming the longest one since the Great Depression.
As bad as the picture is today, Shierholz told lawmakers, there is still worse ahead.
According to her testimony:
“After the official end of the recession of the early nineties, the unemployment rate continued to rise for more than a year, and unemployment didn’t return to its pre-recession levels for another four years after that. After the end of the recession of 2001, the unemployment rate continued to rise for a year and a half, and unemployment didn’t return to near pre-recession levels for an additional three and a half years.
If current laws and policies governing federal spending and taxes do not change (specifically, if we do not see substantial additional stimulus) we can expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise for at least the next year, reaching 9% by summer, 9.5% for the fourth quarter of this year, and crossing into double-digits sometime early next year. With double-digit unemployment rates, we could expect the number of long-term unemployed workers to climb from its current level of 3.2 million to well over four million. The unemployment rate will likely average 9.5% for 2010, and remain elevated for years to come, continuing the hardship faced by America’s working families.”
Shierholz’s testimony describes job seekers caught between the rock of rising unemployment and the hard place of shrinking job openings. In the first quarter of this year, she notes, an average of “23,000 workers were added to the jobless rolls every single day.”
As she explains, “More and more job seekers are caught in an increasingly high-stakes kind of musical chairs. When this recession began, there were 1.7 unemployed people for every job opening – and now, just 15 months later, there are over twice as many – 4.1 job hunters for every opening.”
Her testimony documents the current crisis state of the labor market, describes worsening trends, and recommends steps the government should take to ease the hardships of millions of Americans.